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The Financial Conduct Authority, the main supervisory authority of the UK financial market, has launched negotiations with operators in the field of so-called forecast markets. According to The Times, which relies on informed sources, the discussion concerns the possible lifting of restrictions that have prevented private investors from using such services since April 2019. These platforms offer binary contracts tied to sports matches, political events, or weather phenomena — among them, the American Polymarket and Kalshi stand out.

The seven‑year ban was introduced after a harsh assessment: former FCA strategy director Christopher Woolard argued that such instruments are not investments but a hidden form of gambling. He emphasized that they lacked investment value and were closer to betting. However, practice showed that it was not possible to completely exclude Britons from this market. Many clients used VPNs to bypass the blocks and conduct transactions through American jurisdictions.

Now, it appears that the regulator is changing its approach. Instead of a strict veto, the option of controlled access is being discussed in order to bring transactions out of the shadows. It is difficult to ignore such scale, and the British regulator is apparently ready to adapt the rules to meet the actual demand.

However, even with a positive decision from the FCA, difficulties may arise, as in the USA. For example, New Jersey is challenging the legality of Kalshi’s sports contracts — the state has filed a petition with the Supreme Court to review the case and delineate powers. This creates uncertainty for platforms targeting the British market, as online trading is making borders increasingly insignificant.

Ultimately, lifting the ban is not just a matter of amending the regulation, but recognizing that prediction markets are a stable phenomenon that requires balanced rules. The FCA seeks to take a proactive stance by offering participants clear terms instead of outright rejection.