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Prediction markets, once a modest niche, have transformed in recent years into a powerful financial sector with billions of dollars in turnover. Riding this wave of growth, Meta* aims to capture its share of this dynamically developing field. According to The New York Times, citing inside information, the company is working on a mobile app called Arena. This service is planned to be similar to existing blockchain platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where users bet on various outcomes – from elections and sporting events to meteorological phenomena.

A distinctive feature of Arena in the initial stage will be its settlement system. Instead of real money, Meta* plans to use an internal currency, similar to in-game currency in mobile apps. This approach is likely intended to simplify market entry by bypassing complex financial regulations, while simultaneously testing audience interest without significant legal risks. However, Meta* does not rule out the possibility of transitioning to real-money bets in the future if Arena demonstrates sustainable growth and compliance with regulatory requirements.

Arena is being developed as a standalone product, but its promotion will be closely linked to the existing Meta* ecosystem. The company plans to actively use its social media and messaging apps to attract users, giving it a significant competitive advantage over young startups forced to invest heavily in marketing. Integration with social media will allow for a rapid increase in the number of active users, which is especially important for platforms whose value directly depends on market liquidity and the number of participants.

Experts interviewed by The New York Times believe the current situation is favorable for a new player. The arrival of a large corporation like Meta*, with its developed infrastructure and huge user base, could radically change the balance of power in the market. The growth of Polymarket and Kalshi, whose revenues increased from $50 billion in 2025 to over $130 billion in 2026, has attracted the attention of not only tech giants but also traditional bookmakers.

However, projects in this space inevitably face regulatory challenges. If Meta decides to transition to real-money betting, it will have to consider the laws of various jurisdictions, particularly in areas of anti-money laundering, data protection, and fraud prevention. While Arena operates as a game with its own currency, these risks are minimal, but moving to the next stage will require significantly stricter government oversight.

*Meta is an organization designated as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation.